A Reader Writes... (I got a Royal Flush - Part 5)

In response to the post, “I Got a Royal Flush,” a reader writes:

Sean,

I enjoyed reading your thoughts on the “I Got a Royal Flush,” post. I was curious as to how you calculated the numbers:

TEA posted the following numbers on their site: http://www.tea.state.tx.us/news_release.aspx?id=2147485608

The only numbers that match up with your numbers are the exemplary numbers at 2624/1159. Please explain?

Cain Numbers: Overall / Absolute

E: 2624 / 1159

R: 3153 / 2212

A: 1456 / 3280

AU: 145 / 727

TEA Numbers: Overall / Absolute

E: 2624 / 1159

R: 3153 / 748

A: 1456 / 874

AU: 135

SC Response

Great questions and I have been waiting for someone to call me on the math. First of all, the early numbers I was working from were originally percentages, so there are some rounding errors. Second, I did lump the AU and the AAU together.

As you pointed out the state claims the following:

Exemplary (Overall) 2,624 / Exemplary (Absolute) 1,159

Recognized (Overall) 3,153 / Recognized (Absolute) 748

Acceptable (Overall) 1,456 / Acceptable (Absolute) 874

Unacceptable (Overall) 135

Here is how I figured out my numbers

1. Start with Exemplary, if you take away the wild cards, you have to assume that those campuses would drop down to the next level. So you have 1,159 campuses that remain Exemplary and 1,465 campuses that are now Recognized (2,624 – 1,159 = 1,465).

2. Do the same process with the Recognized Campuses (3,153 – 748 = 2,405). The 2,405 wild card Recognized campuses drop down to acceptable. But don’t forget you now have to add the campuses that moved down from Exemplary to the Recognized ranks (748 + 1,465 = 2213)

3. Do the same process with the Acceptable Campuses (1,456 – 874 = 582). The 582 wild card Acceptable campuses drop down to Unacceptable. But don’t forget you now have to add the campuses that moved down from Recognized to the Acceptable ranks (2,405 + 874 = 3,279)

4. Now add the wild card Acceptable campuses to the Unacceptable total (582 + 135 = 717).

Finally, your campus’s rating of Exemplary without the use of wild cards is a significant accomplishment. You and your staff should be proud. Just remember, one time could be a fluke; two times signals a trend; three times is a dynasty; and four times is why they write legends.

Think. Work. Achieve.

Your turn...